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September 1, 2002

Sveiki, all!

Chores saved up for the long Labor Day week-end beckon, but not before this week's (or so) mailer. In the news:

  • Prospects for 2007 euro entry by EU candidates dip; analysts see diminishing likelihood for 2007 entries in wake of poor economic times
  • European Championship in aquatic motor-sports; held at Jurmala
  • European Union says it won't force policy on international court; Baltics pressured by EU and U.S.
  • Reuters historical calendar - September 3; Baltics apply to United Nations
  • Latvian Television building may take on new broadcasts; Russian-language Radio Free Europe broadcasts may move to Riga
  • Finnish cruises to Russia at standstill because of visa restrictions -- Russian government cuts off visa-free travel by Finns, reduces them to EU-country visa status; no comment from Russa... however, one day earlier, Putin again lobbied for visa-free travel to Kalingrad through Lithuania once Lithuania joins the EU... Russia shoots itself in its economic foot to make a point?
  • Friday, September 6, Day in History; Soviet Union recognizes Baltic independence in 1991; occupation formally "ends" 51 years, 2 months, and 20 days after June 17, 1940, the day Soviet troops invaded Latvia
  • Enlargement could just make NATO's problems worse; analyst's view that prospective military partners are not ready to contribute at required level of capability
  • Napoleonic Grave Helps to Explain Catastrophic Russian Campaign; thousands of Napoleon's troops laid to rest in ignominious mass grave in Vilnius

This week's link is to a fun time for all ages.

This week's picture revisits photogenic Old Riga.

As always, AOL'ers, remember, mailer or not, AOL Lat Chat spontaneously appears every Sunday on AOL starting around 9:00/9:30pm Eastern time, lasting until 11:00/11:30pm. AOL'ers can follow this link in their AOL browser: Town Square - Latvian chat. And thanks to you participating on the Latvian message board as well: LATVIA (both on AOL only).

Ar visu labu,

Silvija Peters

P.S. Since we archive the mailers on our web site, we are considering publishing there and just sending the cover memo with a link to keep the mailer at a manageable size. Please let us know if you would find this more convenient.

 

  Latvian Link

Children of all ages can't help but enjoy themselves at the Riga Zoo, now online with their own website (in Latvian). We dropped a note to find out if there are plans for an English version. Meanwhile, visit:

      http://www.rigazoo.lv

 

  News


Prospects for 2007 euro entry by EU candidated dip
Reuters World Report Friday, August 23, 2002 7:02:00 AM
Copyright 2002 Reuters Ltd.
By Pratima Desai

      LONDON, Aug 23 (Reuters) -- Growing budget deficits have eroded the chances of the 10 leading candidates for EU membership adopting the euro by January 2007 and left January 2008 as a safer bet, according to a Reuters survey.
      The survey of 36 analysts taken August 19-21 found the chances of euro entry by January 2007, three years after the first possible date for European Union expansion, had slipped about 10 percent from May, to between 40 and 70 percent.
      For January 2008 probabilities for the mainly former communist eastern European candidates ranged from 60 to 75 percent, while for January 2009 the range was 80 to 90 percent. For January 2006 chances for all countries were less than 50 percent.
      Analysts said governments are coming round to the view that they need time to meet the criteria for European Monetary Union and that too early an entry could jeopardise the health of their economies.
      "Deteriorating fiscal positions of most EU accession countries makes it unlikely they will be invited to join EMU as early as 2006/2007," said Lissy Smit at Rabobank in Utrecht.
      "They will hopefully realise that early euro adoption will not be a benefit as growth between candidate and EU countries are expected to differ widely in coming years."
      TENSE RELATIONS
      Analysts cut the chances of Poland, the largest of the candidate countries, joining the euro in January 2007 to 50 percent, despite finance minister Grzegorz Kolodko, appointed in July, naming 2006 as his entry target. For Slovakia chances dropped to 40 percent.
      The Czech Republic and Hungary saw a drop to 60 percent, while Latvia and Lithuania fell to 51 percent. Estonia, Cyprus and Malta led the field with 70 percent, closely followed by Slovenia with 68 percent.
      One other reason why euro entry could be delayed is a growing belief that EU enlargement could be delayed beyond January 2004 for up to 12 months.
      This would delay entry to the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM II) where currencies are allowed to fluctuate by up to 15 percent on either side of a parity rate to the euro and in which hopefuls have to spend at least two years.
      "An issue is the currency level at which they could join and compete on a longer term basis," said Tim Ash at Bear Stearns in London. "Poland has seen a lot of foreign exchange volatility.
      The row between Poland's government and the central bank over interest rates has kept markets nervous. There is less public tension now but the government still feels rates are too high, boosting the zloty and stunting growth.
      Governments have to meet the so-called Maastricht Treaty criteria for euro entry, which include a national debt of less than 60 percent of gross domestic product, a budget deficit of less than three percent of GDP and inflation targets.
      With budget deficits around six percent of GDP and growing, meeting the fiscal deficit rule will be hard because slow global growth has hit exports and domestic demand across eastern Europe, while costs of structural reform have escalated.
      WEALTH DISPARITIES
      Investment in infrastructure is also necessary.
      "For eastern Europe a lot of investment is needed to make roads safer," said Dagmar Alpen at Oppenheim Research in Cologne. "Roads are a problem there and hold back growth.
      "In Poland there are still a lot of old enterprises that have to be cleaned up before privatisation and this will weigh on the budget for a while."
      The Czech Republic, which has gained the most from privatisation so far, still has a large fiscal deficit, mostly due to the government bail-out of banks in the 1990s.
      Floods in much of the Czech Republic in recent weeks will cost billions of dollars and could stunt economic growth, potentially delaying the euro to beyond January 2008, some say.
      But Oliver Stoenner-Venkatarama at Commerzbank in Frankfurt disagrees. "It will have a one-off effect. If the government just shifts expenditure from one place to another there will be no real impact on the budget deficit."
      Analysts say EU enlargement is a matter of political will and ask if the euro entry process will be the same?
      Less so, say observers, because the European Central Bank is demanding real convergence between euro zone and candidate economies, as opposed to nominal convergence where currencies appreciate but wealth disparities remain.
      "Getting Poland into the EU is important for Germany," said James Ker-Lindsay at Civilitas Research in Nicosia. "Getting them into the euro isn't quite as important...they will probably find the criteria for euro accession quite tough."
      Analysts agree it is not in the best interests of any country to rush into EMU if real convergence with the western bloc hasn't been achieved.
      "There are things which need to be attended to before moving to a single currency," said Ash at Bear Stearns. "Most countries feel confident enough about EU accession dates to be able to accept that maybe a delay is not a bad idea."

European Championship in Aquatic motor-sports
August 25, 2002 11:22
Copyright 2002 ITAR-TASS

      JURMALA, Latvia -- Speed-boats of the Formula-2 class competed on the Lielupe River in Jurmala where the European Chamionship in aquatic motor-sports was opened on Saturday with the participation of racers from Denmark, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Russia, Finland and Estonia.

European Union says it won't force policy on international court
AP WorldStream Monday, August 26, 2002 12:17:00 PM
Copyright 2002 The Associated Press
By MICHAEL TARM
Associated Press Writer

      TALLINN, Estonia (AP) -- Denmark's foreign minister said Monday that the European Union won't force nations seeking membership to adhere to the bloc's policy on the International Criminal Court -- a body the United States opposes.
      "It's not for us to tell them what to do," Per Stig Moeller, whose country holds the rotating EU presidency, said at a news conference during a one-day meeting of Nordic and Baltic foreign ministers to discuss EU and NATO issues.
      "I hope, of course, they want to have a common position with the EU as members of the EU very soon," he said in Tallinn, Estonia's capital. "But we're not putting pressure. We inform, so everybody knows what's going on."
      The United States, fearing its citizens could be prosecuted for actions in peacekeeping or combat, upset the EU by asking countries striving to join the 15-nation bloc to grant immunity to Americans from the court.
      Israel and EU-candidate Romania are the only countries so far to have signed immunity deals with Washington.
      The EU says it will set its policy on the immunity requests within a few weeks. Moeller declined to comment on whether the EU was leaning toward the view that such bilateral immunity treaties violate international law.
      Most of the 10 countries vying to join the EU are also bidding to join the U.S.-led NATO or are already members of the defensive alliance, putting them in an awkward position of trying to please both the EU and the Americans.
      The United States ratcheted up the pressure when Pierre-Richard Prosper, U.S. ambassador for war crimes, reportedly said Washington's relations with NATO would be affected if the EU opposes immunity deals. He didn't elaborate.
      The former Soviet Baltic republics of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are considered leading contenders to join both the EU and NATO, and are among those now put on the spot.
      The three countries, all of whom have been approached by the United States about signing immunity deals, have said they'll wait for the EU policy -- but stopped short of promising to follow the EU's lead.
      Latvian Foreign Minister Indulis Berzins said he was clear about the U.S. position but was looking forward to knowing the EU's official stand.
      "It's difficult to say if we're caught in the middle since we still don't know the EU position," he said. "We're candidates to the EU and NATO and we'd be happy to see a common position between the EU and U.S."

Reuters historical calendar -- September 3
Reuters World Report Tuesday, August 27, 2002 5:19:00 PM [EXCERPT]
Copyright 2002 Reuters Ltd.

      LONDON, Aug 27 (Reuters) -- Following are some of the major events to have occurred on September 3 since 1900:
      1991 -- Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania applied for membership of the United Nations.

Latvian Television building may take on new broadcasts
August 27, 2002 20:11
Copyright 2002 ITAR-TASS

      RIGA, Latvia -- Radio "Svoboda" (Freedom) and "Svobodnaya Evropa" (Free Europe) may be moved to the Latvian Television building in Riga from Prague where they are stationed now. This idea was discussed at a Latvian government meeting.

Finnish cruises to Russia at standstill becasue of visa restrictions
AP WorldStream Wednesday, August 28, 2002 12:12:00 PM
Copyright 2002 The Associated Press
By MATTI HUUHTANEN
Associated Press Writer

      HELSINKI, Finland (AP) -- Finnish cruises to Russia halted abruptly on Wednesday when the country's officials began demanding visas for all passengers.
      Tens of thousands of cruise passengers visiting Russia every year from Finland have not needed visas that are compulsory for other visitors and ordinary tourists.
      Silja Line, a major operator in the Baltic region, was to begin regular cruises on Wednesday to St. Petersburg, Russia's second-largest city.
      Instead, the Silja Opera, with 700 passengers, will be diverted to the Latvian capital, Riga.
      Pekka Helin, a spokesman for Silja Line, said the advertising campaign for the cruises had cost "hundreds of thousands of euros," although he declined to be more specific.
      "It's clear many people are going to cancel, and naturally there will be losses and extra costs in reorganizing the cruises," he said.
      Kristina Cruises, that operates between the southern port of Kotka, 130 kilometers (80 miles) east of the Finnish capital, Helsinki, and the Russian city of Vyborg, plans to cancel about 100 cruises scheduled for this fall.
      "The total bill will be in tens of millions of euros (dlrs)," said Mikko Partanen, managing director of Kristina Cruises.
      "The biggest losers definitely will be the Russians themselves because they are losing out on harbor tariffs, ships' pilots fees, travel agents' and tour organizers' fees," he said. "Also, they will miss the massive amounts of money that Finnish tourists spend during their shopping sprees."
      Finland requires visas from all Russian visitors in line with European Union laws. Finnish visitors to Russia also need visas unless they are one-day visitors or cruise passengers who overnight on the ships.
      The Foreign Ministry said it did not know why Russia suddenly wanted to end the practice of visa-free travel for cruise passengers from Finland that began in the 1980s.
      Foreign Minister Erkki Tuomioja said Finland has requested Russia allow visa-free travel to continue at least until the cruising season ends in the winter.
      "Russia has the possibility to be flexible in this case because it's a question of their laws and the interpretation of them," Tuomioja said. "No one benefits from this situation; everyone suffers."
      Russian Embassy officials in the Finnish capital could not be reached for comment.
      A month ago, one-day cruises from Lappeenranta, 10 kilometers (6 miles) from the Russian border, through the Saimaa Canal to Vyborg ended after officials began demanding visas. Talks to resume visa-free travel through the canal have failed.
      Since the 1991 breakup of the Soviet Union, several disputes have hindered trade and travel between Russia and Finland, which share a 1,270-kilometer (790-mile) border.

Friday, September 6, Day in History
AP WorldStream Thursday, August 29, 2002 8:02:00 PM [EXCERPT]
Copyright 2002 The Associated Press
By The Associated Press

      Friday, September 6 -- the 249th day of 2002. There are 116 days left in the year.
      Highlights in history on this date:
      1991 -- Soviet Union recognizes the independence of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia.
      Thought for Today:
      Laziness is often mistaken for patience -- French proverb.

Enlargement could just make NATO's problems worse
Reuters World Report Saturday, August 31, 2002 10:04:00 PM
Copyright 2002 Reuters Ltd.
By John Chalmers

      BRUSSELS, Sept 1 (Reuters) -- Imagine if freedom and security spanned the European continent, from the Atlantic and the Mediterranean to the Baltic Sea and the Black Sea.
      It's a cheery vision in this post-September 11 age.
      And it's one that U.S. President George W. Bush is peddling hard ahead of NATO's summit in Prague this November, when up to seven nations which once lurked behind the Iron Curtain will be invited to join the team that won the Cold War.
      But the "robust enlargement" which now seems inevitable could be disastrous for NATO, diluting its military capability, threatening its cohesion and stoking debate about its relevance.
      "None of the candidates meets any established military criteria for alliance membership," wrote Sean Kay of Ohio Wesleyan University in an opinion column that appealed to U.S. senators to think before giving a green light to enlargement.
      "Most importantly...NATO's (diminished) capacity to make effective decisions based on consensus will make the organisation even less attractive for U.S. leadership."
      Washington's decision effectively to go it alone in Afghanistan with its military response to the attacks of September 11 has already reinforced an impression of U.S. indifference to NATO as a fighting force.
      Far ahead of Europe in military technology and defence spending, the United States now looks unlikely to involve the alliance collectively in future wars.
      Even NATO Secretary General George Robertson, who has tirelessly defended NATO's relevance since September 11, warns that America's allies face a stark choice between military modernisation or marginalisation.
      STRATEGIC GAINS, YES...
      Guillaume Parmentier of France's Institute for International Relations believes that if Washington no longer considers NATO the institution of choice for political and military engagement in Europe, it risks becoming "merely a forum for discussion and a source of useful and interesting analysis."
      "The danger of moving down this...path becomes greater the more and the quicker that the alliance enlarges," he wrote in the latest NATO Review. "This is because many countries aspiring to join NATO have poorly equipped militaries with the result that their practical contribution to overall alliance capabilities is likely to be minimal."
      But advocates of NATO enlargement say September 11 demonstrated a need to build the broadest possible coalition of countries which share democratic values to tackle new threats such as terrorism and weapons of mass destruction.
      And it may keep eastern Europe on the path of reform, a path which over the past decade has steered poverty-stricken, authoritarian countries towards democracy and market reforms.
      Taking in the three Baltic states -- Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania -- would build a bridge to Russia, which is now cooperating more closely with its old enemy on security issues.
      Slovakia would consolidate NATO's eastern flank, while Slovenia, Romania and Bulgaria would give the alliance a foothold in the Balkans, a region of stubborn ethnic tension and organised crime and a potential source of terrorism.
      Romania and Bulgaria would also fill the gap between central Europe and NATO's only Muslim member, Turkey, which could play a key role if there was a U.S.-led operation against Iraq.
      For the United States there is the promise of over flight rights and facilities for missions reaching into Russia's soft underbelly and Central Asia, and there is also the prospect of extending its sphere of influence to Europe's furthest corners.
      Two other candidates for NATO membership, Albania and Macedonia, are widely expected to be turned away at Prague.
      ...BUT WHAT ABOUT MILITARY GAINS?
      Many believe the new members, with their minimalist or bloated militaries, will be passive recipients of NATO's security guarantee and a millstone around its neck.
      "For the foreseeable future -- I mean over the next decade or so -- none of those seven countries which are likely to be invited into NATO this November in Prague are going to bring anything of value with them other than infrastructure and airspace access," RAND Institute researcher Thomas Szayna told Reuters.
      One NATO official said even now only two of the 19 allies, the United States and Britain, can reliably field forces quickly and for a sustained period in far-flung hotspots like Afghanistan.
      Such missions require a range of capabilities from support ships packed with groceries to air-to-air refuelling.
      "There are a couple of others trying," said the official, who requested anonymity. "The rest are struggling in the mud, still pointlessly focused on defence of national territory.
      "The new members will bring the same conservative European mind-set with them -- and they'll bring disillusionment with the Warsaw Pact, which could mean a nationalistic approach and discomfort in an alliance."
      BACKSLIDING
      The precedent is not comforting.
      Szayna said Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic, stalwarts of the former Warsaw Pact which joined NATO when it first expanded eastwards in 1999, have still not filled all the posts within the organisation they were supposed to fill and many of their officials' English-language skills are poor.
      All three have failed to live up to promises to increase and refocus military spending once inside the alliance.
      "The first round of enlargement demonstrated that, while outside the alliance, candidate countries will do much to appear willing to bear costs and burdens of membership," Kay said. "However, once inside, they will behave like the many other NATO free-riders."
      Hungary conceded in July that it would miss a deadline to supply NATO with a declaration of its military strength, postponing it until it had carried out a major review of its armed forces and how to pay for them.
      The NATO official said he was tempted to open a bottle of champagne in August when he heard that Prague, facing huge costs from flooding, had scrapped plans to buy 24 Gripen jets.
      "The reason they went for a supersonic aircraft was old-fashioned machismo. NATO just doesn't need it," he said.
      Each of the aspirant countries follow a Membership Action Plan (MAP) which demands a democratic political system, armed forces under civilian control, a military contribution to NATO and a willingness to achieve inter-operability with NATO allies.
      The problem is that political and strategic considerations can override the MAP accession criteria, making entry possible for countries even if they are far from ready.
      Szayna said it may now be too late to back out of inviting seven candidates to join at Prague, but the MAP criteria should be enforced and membership delayed until they are all met.

Napoleonic Grave Helps to Explain Catastrophic Russian Campaign
AP Online Saturday, August 31, 2002 1:17:00 PM
Copyright 2002 The Associated Press
By MICHAEL TARM
Associated Press Writer

      VILNIUS, Lithuania (AP) -- Arunas Barkus pokes at a leg bone in a pile of skeletal remains, tagged No. 151 and sprawled on an autopsy table at Vilnius University. At the touch of his fingers, marrow crumbles into the dust of one of history's most catastrophic military adventures.
      What's clear, says the anthropologist, is that the remains of 2,000 men unearthed in a mass grave in Vilnius, the Lithuanian capital, were in Napoleon's army that invaded Russia 190 years ago.
      When bulldozers accidentally uncovered the remains at a housing development last year, many thought they were political dissidents executed by secret police during Soviet rule, which ended in 1991.
      But as crowds gathered to stare at the tangle of ribs and skulls poking through the sand, and coins with Napoleon's image and buttons of his Grand Army were found, it quickly became clear these were remnants of the ill-fated French force.
      Deputy French Ambassador Olivier Poupard said the find was the "largest and most significant" of its kind.
      "We've been very moved by this discovery," Poupard said. "Suddenly, history was more vivid. You could see it with your eyes. ... It's a history so much a part of the collective French memory."
      Emperor Napoleon, who then controlled much of Europe, attacked Russia in June 1812. His 500,000-strong Grand Army that marched into Lithuania bound for Moscow was one of the largest invasion forces ever assembled.
      Six months later, what was left of it, some 40,000 men, stumbled back into Vilnius in retreat. Cold and desperate for food, some are said to have pillaged local medical schools to eat preserved human organs.
      In temperatures dropping to minus 22 Fahrenheit, dead French soldiers littered the cobblestone streets within days. The number of corpses nearly equaled the city's population.
      Reoccupying Russians spent three months cleaning up. They couldn't dig graves in the frozen ground so they tried burning bodies, but the smoke and stench were unbearable.
      So they threw them into a defensive trench dug earlier by the French themselves -- the trench the bulldozers uncovered nearly two centuries later.
      Barkus and a dozen other researchers spent months charting and tagging the skeletons -- then examining each individually to determine age, sex and possible cause of death.
      The size of skeleton No. 151 indicates it belonged to a male, said Barkus; the unworn teeth suggest he was around 20. Several bones belonged to boys as young as 15, probably drummers used to signal commands to troops.
      Many of the skeletons were found curled up and undamaged, suggesting they died of cold, not cannonballs, bullets or bayonet thrusts.
      "What killed these men was cold, starvation and disease," Barkus said.
      DNA tests are being done to test the theory that a lot of men tied of typhus.
      The emperor blamed the weather for decimating his army. Some historians say that was an excuse for sloppy planning. But experts say the findings in Vilnius seem to back Napoleon's version.
      The debacle is viewed as the beginning of Napoleon's downfall, which was sealed at Waterloo, Belgium, in 1815.
      With the last remains removed, a road has been built over the site, but archeologists will soon begin searching again, saying at least 10,000 other skeletons could be nearby.
      Since Napoleon's soldiers came from all over his empire, there was never a question of returning the remains to France, said Poupard, the deputy ambassador.
      Most of the remains already have been moved to a hilltop cemetery chapel to await ceremonial burial in October, and a monument paid for by France will be unveiled later. The chapel's oak door opens to a grove, shaded by pines, that will be the soldiers' final resting place.
      "This is an occasion, especially with Lithuania on the verge of entering the European Union and the NATO alliance, to show reconciliation between former enemies that are now partners," Poupard said.
 

  Picture Album

We return to our favorite subject, Old Riga. Here, the corner of Pils iela (to the right) and Miesnieku iela (to the left).

Vecriga, corner of Pils iela and Miesnieku iela
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