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January 1, 2002
 

Sveiki, all!

Our heartfelt wishes to all for a happy, healthy, and prosperous New Year!

Russia's opening of their own oil port facility on the Gulf of Helsinki tops this week's news items:

This week's links popped up as we searched for information on the Swedish Gate in Riga.

This week's picture (could you guess?) is of the Swedish Gate in Old Riga.

As always, AOL'ers, Remember, mailer or not, Lat Chat spontaneously appears every Sunday on AOL starting around 9:30pm Eastern time, lasting until 11:00/11:30pm. AOL'ers can follow this link: Town Square - Latvian chat. And thanks to you participating on the Latvian message board as well: LATVIA (both on AOL only).

Again, a Happy New Year to all!

Silvija Peters

  Latvian Link

An informative set of Latvia facts sheets (3 pages in all) can be found at:

     http://www.aic.lv/meeting/general%20docs/fact.htm

They are part of the Latvian ENIC/NARIC and the Latvian National Observatory web site. The information was originally put together for attendees at the Eighth Joint meeting of the ENIC and NARIC networks and the Second meeting of the Lisbon Convention committee, both held this past June in Riga.

ENIC stands for the European Network of Information Centres; NARIC stands for the National Academic Recognition Information Centres, whose home page is at:

     http://www.enic-naric.net/

Both organizations deal with issues of cross-border recognition of diplomas, academic standards, etc. Their web site includes useful links to other pan-European organizations, such as the Council of Europe.

  News


Russian President Putin visits site of new oil-export terminal
AP WorldStream Thursday, December 27, 2001 7:55:00 AM
Copyright 2002 The Associated Press
By IRINA TITOVA
Associated Press Writer

      ST. PETERSBURG, Russia (AP) -- Russian President Vladimir Putin traveled Thursday to the Gulf of Finland to attend the opening of an oil terminal that will allow Russian exporters to reduce petroleum shipments through the former Soviet republics in the Baltics.
      The port at Primorsk is the terminus of the 455-kilometer (284-mile) Baltic Pipeline System, which was begun in March 2000. Up to 12 million metric tons (13.2 million tons) of oil are to be pumped through it annually, along with oil from Kazakstan.
      The Primorsk terminal is being built to replace the major oil-export port Russia lost with the 1991 Soviet collapse, which left the Latvian port of Ventspils outside its borders -- and increased outside pressure on Russia, its officials have said.
      "The question immediately arose about ridding ourselves of this pressure and the dictate of our partners," Putin told reporters Thursday, adding that the new pipeline system will allow Russia to "guarantee its own security and independence."
      Russia is the second biggest oil producer in the world, pumping 7.2 million barrels a day. It recently agreed to the demand by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to decrease production, saying it would cut by 150,000 barrels a day -- though there is always a seasonal reduction in winter, when drilling conditions in Siberian oil fields become tough. Russia has not said how long the cut will remain in effect.
      The Primorsk terminal will provide a direct route to oil customers in northern Europe, and will cut Russia's dependence on transit routes through Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Use of the Baltic Pipeline System should bring the Russian government dlrs 100 million a year. It should also allow it to save up to dlrs 1.5 billion each year in transit tariffs.
      The first, dlrs 500 million stage of construction of the Baltic Pipeline System will add 240,000 barrels per day, or a 12 percent increase, to Russia's export capacity. The first tanker departing from the port, carrying 106,000 metric tons (116,600 tons) of oil, was scheduled to leave on Thursday.
      The capacity will be increased to 18 million metric tons (19.8 tons) a year after completion of the second, dlrs 800 million stretch of the pipeline over the next decade, which will bring the total route to 2,700 kilometers (1,630-miles). The pipeline will carry oil from the Timan Pechora region in Russia's Arctic North to Primorsk, about 160 kilometers (100 miles) north of St. Petersburg.

ANALYSIS-Primorsk opening to boost Russian oil exports
Reuters World Report Thursday, December 27, 2001 9:47:00 AM
Copyright 2002 Reuters Ltd.
By Dmitry Zhdannikov and Mikhail Yenukov

      PRIMORSK, Russia, Dec 27 (Reuters) -- President Vladimir Putin inaugurated Russia's first oil terminal in the Gulf of Finland on Thursday, which traders said would boost crude exports without upsetting oil product deliveries to Europe.
      Putin travelled to the town of Primorsk near his native city of St Petersburg to start the new terminal -- a move emphasizing the importance of the new export route to ship oil from western Siberia and the northern Timan-Pechora field.
      "The terminal gives Russia its own outlet to ship oil (to Europe) and a possibility to be flexible in employing the southern or the northern transport routes," Putin said.
      Traders said that Russia would still have to wait for its export-cutting deal with OPEC to expire before more crude was sent for export. Negotiating lower loading tariffs with ports in the Baltic countries was also crucial, they said.
      "Currently Russia is only set to divert some volumes from the Baltic ports towards its own new terminal, but as output grows, oil firms will try to employ both Russian and Baltic ports to full capacity," a Russian trader said.
      The new route is meant to lower Russian dependence on oil export terminals in neighbouring Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania which were built during the Soviet days.
      Part of $1.5 billion in fees oil firms paid annually to the ports of Ventspils and Riga in Latvia, Butinge in Lithuania and Tallinn in Estonia will now go to the Russian state.
      The Russian pipeline monopoly Transneft has invested nearly $500 million in the new route. It expects to export up to 12 million tonnes (240,000 barrels per day) in 2002 through Primorsk, boosting capacity to 30 million tonnes in 2003.
      SHORT-TERM PAIN FOR VENTSPILS, BUTINGE
      Russia annually exports up to 15 million tonnes of crude through Ventspils and another six million through Butinge, seen as the main losers in the short-term to Primorsk.
      In the first quarter of 2002 Primorsk plans to lift 1.8 million tonnes while the schedule for Ventspils is cut to 1.8 million tonnes from 3.8 million in the fourth quarter this year.
      Traders and oil firms said they hoped Primorsk would bring more stability to exports. Butinge was shut most of December after an oil leak.
      Leonid Fedun, vice president of LUKOIL, Russia's largest oil producer and Ventspils' biggest client, said the Baltic ports would start losing most money from spring.
      "It is clear that Ventspils and Butinge will suffer especially with the end of the winter, a period when tankers in Primorsk need the help of ice-breakers," he told Reuters.
      But traders said both Ventspils and Butinge were unlikely to stand half-dry for more than several months especially if they lowered their tariffs.
      "It is clear that Primorsk has huge political support while profitability seems to be the same. Primorsk tariffs are lower than in the Baltics, but you also have to add ice-breaking costs," a Russian trader said.
      Another trader added that Russia's mostly private oil firms were not rushing to Primorsk, which will be managed by state-owned Transneft.
      However, one Russian energy official said the significance of the opening of Primorsk should not be underestimated.
      "The terminal brings more flexibility to the whole Russian pipeline system, which is sometimes overloaded, and you have to shut producing wells due to the lack of free export capacities."
      Primorsk would help refineries whose storages are sometimes overloaded in summer due to low European demand for gasoil and cannot accept additional crude, the official added.
      NO MAJOR FALL IN OIL PRODUCTS
      Some traders said Primorsk could spark a short-term shortage of oil products in Northern Europe as the port sat on the same pipeline that fed Russia's biggest northern refinery Kirishi.
      Kirishi refines 16-17 million tonnes of oil annually and exports almost its entire fuel oil output of 7-8 million tonnes through Tallinn and Ventspils.
      The Primorsk terminal will export 12 million tonnes of unrefined crude, leaving the Kirishi refinery to export only six million tonnes of refined oil products.
      Transneft has said it would increase the throughput capacity of its pipeline running to Primorsk from Siberia via Kirishi to 30 million tonnes, but so far no major work has been done.
      "Kirishi may have difficult times, but I don't think the market will suffer," a Western trader said.
      "The lack of Kirishi oil products in Baltic ports, can be quickly and easily replaced by other refineries in the European part of Russia."

Latvia Q3 deficit gap widens dramatically
Reuters World Report Friday, December 28, 2001 6:58:00 AM
Copyright 2002 Reuters Ltd.

      RIGA, Dec 28 (Reuters) -- Latvia's third quarter current account deficit widened year-on-year to a surprising 10.5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) as the trade and income balances deteriorated, the central bank said on Friday.
      The third quarter current account deficit of 123.7 million lats ($196 million), exceeded analyst expectations, which came in the range between 7.2 and 9.5 percent of GDP or 80.0-112.0 million lats.
      The third quarter figure compares to a current account shortfall of 6.3 percent of GDP in the second quarter and 6.2 percent of GDP in the third quarter of 2000.
      "Compared to the corresponding period of the previous year, the surplus of services increased by 8.4 million lats, while other items of of the current account deteriorated," the central bank said in a statement.
      Latvia's third quarter trade deficit widened 22.7 percent year-on-year to 205.7 million lats, as import growth outpaced that of exports due to slowing external demand, especially in Latvia's key export partners -- Germany, Finland and Sweden.
      Earlier in December, the central bank raised the full-year 2001 current account deficit forecast to slightly over eight percent of GDP from its earlier expectation of 6.5 percent due to slowing exports.
      The bank said the current account deficit stood at 7.1 percent of GDP at 245.6 million lats in the nine-month period.
      Analysts said the widening of the current account gap was not worrying given other good indicators, while import growth would remain high as it has to support the pace of economic expansion, the highest in the Baltics.
      "With other macro indicators in an extremely good shape, the 7-8 percent level for the current account gap is not worrying. It would be a concern, though, if the annual figure came in at 10 percent," said Andris Vilks, an analyst with Latvian Unibankla said.
      In the third quarter, the services surplus reached 73.7 million lats, covering 36 percent of the goods deficit, but the income balance was negative and surplus in the balance of current transfers declined.

Spain to push expansion during EU presidency
AP WorldStream Saturday, December 29, 2001 9:11:00 AM
Copyright 2002 The Associated Press
By MAR ROMAN
Associated Press Writer

      MADRID, Spain (AP) -- Spain is promising an ambitious effort to pursue negotiations for EU expansion into Eastern Europe when it takes over the bloc's presidency on Tuesday.
      Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar has set out six goals for a presidency that follows on Belgium's success in complex negotiations to admit new members from the former communist bloc.
      During a summit in Laeken, Belgium, the leaders of the 15-nation block named for the first time the 10 nations they expect to be ready to join the European Union in 2004, which will be the largest expansion of the EU since it was founded in 1957 with six members.
      Poland is among the leading contenders to join the EU along with Slovenia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, the Czech Republic, Cyprus, Slovakia, Malta and Estonia.
      Aznar's government takes over the EU stewardship with the slogan "More Europe" at a crucial point. In 2002, the EU must complete entry negotiations with the candidate countries and tackle sensitive issues which include farm subsidies and divvying up the Union's funding for poorer regions. But Spain is highly optimistic about the results.
      "The most thorny issues are always those related to money. If we are capable of achieving a common stance in various areas, we can overcome the financial pitfalls," said Ramon de Miguel, Secretary of State of European Affairs in an interview Thursday.
      De Miguel said the closure of negotiations with any of the bidding countries would not take place until Denmark takes over for the second half of 2001.
      Overseeing the arrival of euro banknotes and coins on Jan. 1 and the fight against international terrorism are also high up on a packed agenda. Spain hosts several EU ministerial meetings and important summits with Russia, United States, Canada and the Latin American group of nations.
      Practical aspirations for Spain's six months in the hot seat will be developing co-operation with Arab and Muslim countries and revitalizing a Euro-Mediterranean dialogue that began in Barcelona in 1995 to strengthen economic and development ties.
      The Balkans, the Middle East process and the new Afghan political scenario are also likely to be issues of concern.
      The country that holds the rotating presidency doesn't have particular powers to influence world events, but it can focus public attention on a region.
      "The task of foreign relations for the European Union is huge nowadays. The European Union has a much more committed position in the world, so we will be quite busy," de Miguel said.

On the net... Spain EU presidency: http://www.ue2000.es


The Ghost of Christmas Past, THE MOSCOW TIMES
AP WorldSources Online Friday, December 28, 2001 6:05:00 AM
Copyright 2002 The Associated Press
Copyright 2001 THE MOSCOW TIMES

      A year ago, U.S.-Russian relations seemed to be going from bad to worse. There were tit-for-tat expulsions of alleged spies from Moscow and from Washington. The new U.S. President George W. Bush promised to abrogate the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty. Russian officials responded by threatening to break out of all other existing arms control treaties, promising to put more nuclear warheads on existing warheads and so on.
      Of course, everyone understood that Russia was not capable of financing a full-blown arms race with the West. But China officially supported Moscow's stand on ABM and NATO expansion, so a new Cold War-style confrontation between East and West seemed possible.
      Last January, U.S. government officials leaked information to the press that Russia secretly had moved tactical nuclear weapons to the Kaliningrad region--a small patch of Russian sovereign territory sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania on the shores of the Baltic. Moscow fiercely denied that there were any nuclear weapons in the area. President Vladimir Putin told journalists that the report was "rubbish. "Nukes in Kaliningrad were never conformed, and the story died away. But somehow the Russian denials did not sound convincing. The military did not, apparently, deploy nuclear weapons in Kaliningrad, but was clearly running exercises to prepare for a swift deployment of nukes by air or by sea from St. Petersburg, in case the Baltic countries closed their air space to Russian military transport planes in the event of a NATO blockade and siege of Kaliningrad.
      Ten years after the demise of the Soviet Union, Russian generals still see NATO and the United States as their main potential enemy. The chilly tension that was so evident only a year ago was seen in the defense community as ample proof that armed deterrence is the only valid policy in facing NATO and that battle plans on the Western theater (first of all in and around Kaliningrad and in the Barents-Norwegian seas) were still of utmost importance.
      Kaliningrad, surrounded by NATO member Poland and NATO-hopeful Lithuania, was seen since the beginning of the 1990s as the most vulnerable point against which NATO could apply various forms of military pressure or a military-backed economic blockade without risking a global nuclear confrontation.
      Russian military planners still believe that a conflict over human rights violations in Belarus, ruthlessly ruled by President Alexander Lukashenko, or Russian actions in the Caucasus could trigger a NATO military response: A full sea, land and air blockade of the Kaliningrad region and then an attack with stealth bombers and conventional cruise missiles on military bases in Kaliningrad, Belarus and the nuclear Northern Fleet exposed at its anchor bases near the Norwegian border in the Murmansk area. Russia would either have to start a global nuclear war it would probably lose and surely be annihilated, or surrender like Yugoslavia and accept Western (U.S.) domination.
      All major military exercises the Defense Ministry has managed to run in the last 10 years followed basically the same scenario. The latest took place in August, several weeks before the Sept. 11 attack on America. In a joint air-defense exercise, Belarussian and Russian forces prepared to repel a NATO air offensive against Kaliningrad and Belarus, combined with a Taliban invasion of former Soviet Central Asia, tacitly supported by the United States.
      Russian military chiefs (as many of their counterparts elsewhere) try to paint a world full of horrifying threats to extract as much defense money as possible. In the mid 1990s, a joint command under naval supervision was established in Kaliningrad, so all the forces could fight as the united garrison of a besieged fortress. It was also considered of paramount importance that tactical nukes be rushed into Kaliningrad before NATO closes in. The Kaliningrad garrison could use the nukes to fight its own local nuclear campaign that might not involve the rest of Russia.
      Tactical nukes could also serve as a regional deterrent. But it's important that the warheads be rushed in at the last moment, so NATO could not destroy them in a surprise preventive strike. It is also important that the nukes not be deployed beforehand so as to prevent giving the West a pretext to attack Kaliningrad.
      Last September, Russian strategic forces were preparing to launch an exercise that would involve bombers flying to the American coastline to mimic a cruise-missile attack on targets on the U.S. mainland. President Vladimir Putin called off the exercise at the last moment, because U.S. cities were already indeed hit from the air and the North American Aerospace Defense Command, or NORAD, was on edge.
      Today it would appear the world has profoundly changed, but for the Russian military it's more or less the same. When the United States paused for several weeks in September before attacking the Taliban in Afghanistan and offered peace if Osama bin Laden was handed over, our generals muttered: Trickery.
      Today the Talibs and other extremist forces have dissolved into an underground army in Afghanistan. Joint action by Russia, Iran and the United States has diminished the threat to Central Asia. But there are more and more signs that Russia and the West are backing competing "anti-Talib" factions, so Afghanistan in the future will most likely be (and to some extent already is) more a source of contention than a reason to unite.
      Last week, on Dec. 17, when the Strategic Rocket Forces celebrated their 42nd anniversary, Russian generals actually toasted with glasses of vodka the health of Bush, who several days before had announced a unilateral withdrawal from the ABM Treaty. The toast went like this: "Comrade Bush made America's aggressive intentions obvious and as the ABM shield is built the threat will increase, so the future of our nuclear deterrent is secure for a generation at least."When over a glass of vodka or wine in the last days before Christmas and New Year's, I tell Russian generals and members of Moscow's small foreign policy elite that the world has maybe truly changed, that Putin maybe is indeed serious about turning Russia into an integral part of the Euro-Atlantic community of nations and a trustworthy ally of the United States, that there will be no need anymore to maintain defenses against the West, most gaze in total disbelief. They shake their heads, some chuckle, some go ballistic and talk of betrayal.
      Their Western counterparts also shake their heads in total disbelief: "Is Putin actually serious?" I don't know. Even if he is, it all hinges on just one man, a former KGB spy recruiter, whose word, apparently, should never be taken at face value.
      Maybe those wise men in epaulets know better? For generation after generation the generals and diplomats of the Euro-Atlantic community (including Russia) have shown their ability to make nightmare scenarios come true.

  Picture Album

 
 

      In the 17th century, Riga was the largest city in Sweden. The Swedes built massive fortifications to protect their prize. The Swedish Gate is the only city-gate left standing, having been originally built in 1698. Most of the Riga city wall was torn down in the 1800's to improve accessibility between the old and new sections of an expanding Riga. The Powder Tower (pictured in last week's mailer) is the only one of the 18 original towers left standing. If one looks closely, one can find Russian cannonballs stuck in the tower walls, embedded during attacks in the 16th and 17th centuries. (The picture was taken this past July).

 
Swedish Gate
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