latviski
Where does a publication go when the library holding it decides it is no longer of interest? Can we assume it's been digitized somewhere, rendering the printed copy redundant? And when the great solar flare finally comes and destroys all digital media, will prescient souls and bookworm hoarders have safe-kept books for the post-technology apocalypse?
Why this rumination? Our quest for unique contemporaneous materials yielded a copy of Villibald Raud's war-time monograph The Baltic States as a British Market in the Past and Future — "withdrawn," a euphemism for discarded, by the United States Department of State Library. A stamp on page 1 indicates the brochure was also held, likely earlier, by the Lithuanian Legation, 2622 - 16th Street, N.W. Washington, D.C.
About the publication
The Baltic diplomatic missions in London and Washington, D.C. were prolific during WWII, producing numerous books, memoranda, and articles highlighting the impact of their successive occupations by the Soviet Union and Nazi Germany, legality of their independence, their cultural distinctiveness, their contributions to the Allied war effort, and their potential value in a post-war European order. In this context, The Baltic States as a British Market in the Past and Future is a strategic document of economic diplomacy which aimed to influence British opinion and policy at a critical juncture during World War II as the future of central-eastern Europe including the Baltics was being decided.
Summary
Raud analyzes the economic potential and reconstruction needs of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania during the mid-1940s. He emphasizes that these nations were superior per-capita consumers of British goods compared to their larger neighbors before the second World War. To restore their predominantly agrarian economies after WWII, Raud identifies an urgent demand for modern transport, tractors, and fertilizers to replace resources lost during foreign occupations. He provides detailed statistical tables outlining specific import requirements for machinery and textiles alongside projected exports of timber and flax. Ultimately, his study serves as a strategic guide for British exporters to re-establish trade and support Baltic recovery through targeted industrial supply.The strategic importance of the Baltic market
The Baltic States — Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania — represented a significantly more vital market for British industry before World War II than their small population of six million might suggest. Despite having a population 28 times smaller than Soviet Russia, these three nations imported an equivalent value of British manufactured goods, and on a per capita basis, they out-purchased Central and South-Eastern European states by a factor of five. This high purchasing power was rooted in a rapidly developing agricultural economy and a steadily rising standard of living. Following the devastation of WWII, Roud anticipates and outlines a strategic reconstruction plan prioritized by transport, agriculture, and then industry.
Strategic reconstruction of transport
The war was severely depleting the Baltic States’ transport infrastructure, with losses to rolling stock and motor vehicles estimated between 40% and 80%. Because restoring the railway system would be a long-term endeavor, Raud's immediate post-war strategy relies on the motor industry to bridge the gap.
- Motor trucks: To compensate for a 50% deficit in railway wagons, Raud estimates a need for approximately 7,300 motor-trucks (specifically the 3-5 ton variety) for general road haulage.
- Passenger transport: Motor-buses are considered a near-total loss, requiring at least 726 units to restore full service.
- Private cars: A conservative requirement of 2,631 passenger cars is identified to bring the fleet back to just 80% of its pre-war level.
Restoration of the agricultural backbone
Agriculture was the dominant pre-war sector, employing over two-thirds of the population. The war had already caused a critical shortage of live horse-power, with at least one-third of the horse population lost to requisitioning or destruction.
- Mechanization strategy: To address the horse-power deficit and a shortage of manual labor—partly caused by the deportation of up to 9% of the population—Raud proposes a massive influx of tractors and light trucks.
- Tractor requirements: Raud calculates that 18,600 new tractors are needed. This is based on the metric that one tractor working hour replaces eight horse working hours.
- Agricultural trucks: Beyond field work, 24,000 light motor-trucks (15 cwt to 1 ton) are required for farm transport tasks like moving milk, crops, and manure.
- Fertilizers and machinery: Raud anticipates a demand for 460,000 tons of fertilizers in the first post-war year, with the UK expected to be the primary supplier of superphosphates. Additionally, tens of thousands of complex machines, such as grass-mowers (58,400 units) and threshing machines (4,000 units), would need to be imported.
Industrial outlook and export potential
Industrial reconstruction focuses on the timber and textile industries. Raud views the timber industry as the primary engine for financial recovery, as it could be restored quickly and would face high demand across Europe. He suggests that by felling twice the normal volume of timber, the Baltic States could rapidly generate the funds needed to pay for imports. Other secondary export industries slated for recovery included canning, shale-oil, and glass.
Post-war trade dynamics and financing
The total value of required imports is estimated at £40 million for the first post-war year and £32 million for the second. The UK is positioned to capture a large share of this market, particularly in textiles, motors, and coal, with a projected export value of £14 million in the first year.
- Trade balance: The Baltic States are expected to face a £13 million trade deficit in the first year. However, by the second year, as agricultural exports (like flax and dairy) and timber exports stabilized, a £2 million surplus is projected.
- Financial assistance: Given the scale of war damage—estimated at £150 million across the three states—Raud emphasizes the necessity of long-term credits from the UK and US governments to prevent the reconstruction effort from languishing.
Ultimately, Raud argues that assisting the Baltic States is not merely a matter of relief, but a sound economic investment for British industry, ensuring a "good start" in European markets and preventing uneconomic re-industrialization in the region.
Doomed from the start
However, the post-WWII landscape had already been decided between Roosevelt, Churchill, and Stalin. Some history. The Baltic States were under Nazi German occupation in 1943. Majority conscripted Estonian and Latvian Waffen-SS divisions were fighting under Wehrmacht command to stave off Soviet re-occupation. Regardless, the peoples of all three countries hoped to restore independence.
Roosevelt and Churchill had issued the Atlantic Charter↗ two years earlier, on August 14, 1941, espousing principles including:
Second, they desire to see no territorial changes that do not accord with the freely expressed wishes of the peoples concerned;An Inter-Allied Council Statement↗ followed on September 24, 1941, wherein a number of Allied governments including the USSR pledged to adhere to the principles of the Atlantic Charter.1 At the signing, Soviet ambassador Ivan Maisky↗ spoke for the USSR:
Third, they respect the right of all peoples to choose the form of government under which they will live; and they wish to see sovereign rights and self government restored to those who have been forcibly deprived of them;
The Soviet Union defends the right of every nation to the independence and territorial integrity of its country and its right to establish such a social order and to choose such a form of government as it deems opportune and necessary for the better promotion of its economic and cultural prosperity.
Additionally, the Atlantic Charter’s principles were further reaffirmed by the USSR, United States, United Kingdom, and other Allied nations when they signed the Declaration by United Nations↗ on January 1, 1942 in Washington, D.C.
In a UK Parliamentary session, the question was asked on February 15, 1945↗: do the principles of the Atlantic Charter applied to the Baltic Republics (Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia) — given that the USSR, a signatory to the Charter, was occupying them. The government response was silence, an acknowledgment that as soon as the USSR had been permitted to sign on to the Atlantic Charter, the die had been cast. In October of that year, the United Nations↗ was founded on the ashes of Baltic sovereignty.
But as WWII raged across Europe, the Baltics held on to a vision of post-war recovery and prosperity.
About the author
“Dr. V. Raud,” Willibald Raud↗↗et, was an Estonian economist and diplomat who represented Estonia both during its initial period of independence and after the Second World War as a member of the Estonian diplomatic corps in exile. He was appointed commercial counselor and consul general at the Estonian Embassy in London in 19352 and was serving in that post when the war broke out. His earlier work focused on agricultural diplomacy, including service as agricultural attaché to the United Kingdom and Germany—Estonia’s principal export markets for livestock products—as well as commercial adviser to the agricultural department of the Ministry of Agriculture.
Following the Soviet occupation in 1940, the Soviet-controlled Estonian authorities removed Raud from his post. When he refused orders to return, he was tried in absentia on charges of corruption. After the Nazi German occupation in 1941, parts of the Estonian diplomatic corps declared loyalty to what were initially perceived as liberators from Soviet rule. Acting on orders, envoy August Torma↗ dismissed his assistant, Raud.3 Nevertheless, we expect Raud authored his study in an official capacity while a member of the Estonian Legation in exile in London. Despite reports of Torma's dislike of Raud, the two continued to collaborate after the war.
Information on Raud’s postwar activities is limited. He served as an adviser to the Estonian representative office in Madrid from 1953 to 1954, and later represented Estonia↗ as Estonian Consul General to Spain from 1964 to 1979. In 1979 he relocated to Chicago because of declining health. He died in 1982.4
Works by Villibald Raud
In chronological order.5
- Die Grundlagen Der Milchwirtschaft Estlands Und Die Estnischen Molkereiprodukte Auf Dem Weltmarkt. (The fundamentals of Estonian dairy farming and Estonian dairy products on the world market) Dissertation, University of Berlin, Germany. 1934.
- The Baltic States as a British Market in the Past and Future. London. Women’s Printing Society. 1943.
- The Smaller Nations in World’s Economic Life. London: P.S. King and Staples. 1943.
- Collectivisation of Agriculture in Estonia : A Pattern for Central European and Other Communist Dominated Countries. 1951. [Place of publication not identified]: [Publisher not identified].
- Torma, August, and Raud, Villibald. Estonia, 1918-1952. Lectures given by A. Torma and Dr. V. Raud. Pp. 48. London. 1952.
- Free course of central-eastern European studies, Nikola Dolapchiev, Juris Grinbergs, Arvids Prams, Edward Raczyński, Villibald Raud, Tadeusz Sulimirski, A. Torma, J. Woodward, and Tagar Zavalani. [Miscellaneous Pamphlets.]. London. 1954.
- Estonia, a Reference Book. New York: Nordic Press. 1952/3.
- Estonia under Soviet Occupation. Paulton: Purnell and Sons, Ltd. 1955.
- Herder-Institut für historische Ostmitteleuropaforschung. 1982. [Villibald Raud press dossier]. [Place of publication not identified]: [Publisher not identified].
Read more
- Non-searchable facsimile at Rahvus-Arhiv↗, The National Archives of Estonia. You may first have to create an account or log in via Google or other services.
- Estonia as a Captive Nation. Leiden: Brill, 2021. Mentions Raud during the post-war anti-Soviet activism era.
| 1 | Countries signing on to the charter included:
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| 2 | Karl Stern, Mittetariifsete kaubandusmeetmete rakendamine 1930. aastatel Eesti Vabariigi näitel↗ (Dissertation, Implementation of non-tariff trade measures in the 1930s using the example of the Republic of Estonia) |
| 3 | Heikkilä, Pauli. “Estonian Diplomatic Corps in Exile.” In Estonia as a Captive Nation. Leiden: Brill, 2021. |
| 4 | 100 Years of Diplomatic Relations Between Estonia and Spain↗ |
| 5 | from worldcat.org |
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